{"id":1059,"date":"2026-10-02T13:15:33","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T10:15:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/?p=1059"},"modified":"2026-10-02T13:15:33","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T10:15:33","slug":"allianz-tradeden-turkiye-icin-yuzde-36-buyume-tahmini","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/?p=1059","title":{"rendered":"Allianz Trade\u2019den T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Allianz Trade, g\u00fcncelledi\u011fi Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 2,7, 2027\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 3,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki h\u0131zlanman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtilen raporda, k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan enerji \u015foku, tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin riskler de\u011ferlendirildi.<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Allianz Trade<\/strong>, her \u00e7eyrekte haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 <strong>Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu<\/strong>\u2019nu g\u00fcncelledi. 2026-2028 d\u00f6nemini kapsayan raporda, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 yeni bir enerji \u015fokunun, ABD\u2019den Japonya ve Avrupa\u2019ya yay\u0131lan tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ve yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin yeniden artan soru i\u015faretlerinin piyasalarda beklenen sakinle\u015fmeyi geciktirdi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u00fcresel ekonominin ayn\u0131 anda farkl\u0131 gerilimlerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu vurgulanan raporda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemin seyrini bu gerilimlerin kontroll\u00fc bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ya da birbirini besleyerek g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin belirleyece\u011fi ifade edildi. Allianz Trade uzmanlar\u0131, \u201c\u0130\u015fler d\u00fczelmeden \u00f6nce daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015febilir\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bununla birlikte ekonomistler, s\u00f6z konusu risklerin hen\u00fcz reel ekonomiyi ray\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131karmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, Avrupa\u2019da net ihracat ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n te\u015fviklerinin, ABD ve Asya\u2019da ise yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekledi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u011fland\u0131<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Raporda, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda belirgin bir yava\u015flama ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSYH) 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,3 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekilirken, y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklendi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Allianz Trade ekonomistleri, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2027\u2019de y\u00fczde 3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ancak bu h\u0131zlanman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde enflasyonun ikna edici bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f patikas\u0131na girmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu vurguland\u0131. Faizlerde anlaml\u0131 bir gev\u015femenin de enflasyonun seyrine ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyonun 2026\u2019n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 32 seviyesinde seyretti\u011fi, y\u0131l sonunda ise y\u00fczde 30\u2019a do\u011fru gerilemesinin beklendi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Y\u00fcksek enflasyonun t\u00fcketici talebini bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131, ticari rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u015firketlerin k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Enerji \u015fokunun olas\u0131 etkileri incelendi<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Raporda, jeopolitik gerilimlerin d\u00fczensiz bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ihtimaline dayanan \u00fc\u00e7 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk senaryosu ile bunlar\u0131n ekonomi ve sermaye piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki olas\u0131 etkileri modellendi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enerji \u015fokuna odaklanan ilk senaryoda, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 durumunda alternatif rotalar\u0131n devreye girmesi, talepteki gerileme ve alternatif arz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n enerji piyasalar\u0131nda yeniden denge sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu geli\u015fmelerin enerji fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletmesi ve enflasyon \u015fokunun etkisini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 beklendi.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Tahvil piyasalar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek ihra\u00e7 hacmi de\u011ferlendirildi<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0130kinci senaryoda tahvil piyasalar\u0131ndaki sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 ele al\u0131nd\u0131. Enflasyonun \u00fccretler \u00fczerinde belirgin bir bask\u0131 yaratmadan daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyredece\u011fi ve kamu tahvili piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek ihra\u00e7 hacmini, risk primlerinde sert ve d\u00fczensiz bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe yol a\u00e7madan kar\u015f\u0131layabilece\u011fi varsay\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yapay zek\u00e2 harcamalar\u0131nda 2028 i\u00e7in 1 trilyon dolar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc<br \/>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc senaryoda, yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki sermaye harcamalar\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn yava\u015flama riski de\u011ferlendirildi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar ivme kaybetmesi ve harcamalar\u0131n 2028\u2019de 1 trilyon dolarla zirveye ula\u015fmas\u0131 beklendi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te de\u011fer yarat\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n altyap\u0131 kurulumundan yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131na, yayg\u0131n bi\u00e7imde benimsenmesine ve sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 verimlilik art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Allianz Trade, k\u00fcresel GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2025\u2019teki y\u00fczde 3 seviyesinden 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 2,6\u2019ya gerilemesini, 2027\u2019de y\u00fczde 2,8\u2019e y\u00fckselmesini bekledi\u011fini bildirdi. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in 2028 tahmini ise y\u00fczde 2,6 oldu.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2026\u2019daki y\u00fczde 2,1\u2019den 2028\u2019de y\u00fczde 1,8\u2019e gerileyece\u011fi, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Avro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde y\u00fczde 1\u2019den y\u00fczde 1,3\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Asya\u2019n\u0131n ise yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle k\u00fcresel ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u00f6rfez\u2019den ihracat ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u00e7evresinde kademeli olarak normalle\u015fmesiyle Brent petrol\u00fcn 2026\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde varil ba\u015f\u0131na ortalama 87 dolar seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, 2027\u2019de ise y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n 76 dolara gerilemesi beklendi.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\">\n<table class=\"has-fixed-layout\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Rapor:<\/strong>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.allianz-trade.com\/tr_TR\/ekonomik-arastirmalar\/ekonomik-gorunum-raporlari\/ekonomik-gorunum-2026-28-iyilesmeden-once-isler-daha-da-kotulesti.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm 2026-28: \u0130yile\u015fmeden \u00d6nce \u0130\u015fler Daha da K\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"twitter-share\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsigortamedya.com.tr%2Fallianz-tradeden-turkiye-icin-yuzde-36-buyume-tahmini%2F&amp;via=sigortamedya\" class=\"twitter-share-button\">Tweet<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Allianz Trade, g\u00fcncelledi\u011fi Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 2,7, 2027\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 3,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki h\u0131zlanman\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtilen raporda, k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan enerji \u015foku, tahvil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin riskler<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-genel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1059"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1059\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}