{"id":767,"date":"2026-07-24T17:08:42","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T14:08:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/?p=767"},"modified":"2026-07-24T17:08:42","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T14:08:42","slug":"kuresel-buyume-2026da-yuzde-25e-gerileyebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/?p=767","title":{"rendered":"\u201cK\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 2,5\u2019e gerileyebilir\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Allianz Trade\u2019in 2026 Yar\u0131 Y\u0131l Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ge\u00e7ici gerilimlerin ard\u0131ndan yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. Raporda, yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n enerji \u015foku ve ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n olumsuz etkilerini dengeledi\u011fi belirtilirken T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ise y\u00fczde 3,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Allianz Trade, 2026 Yar\u0131 Y\u0131l Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nu yay\u0131mlad\u0131. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerinde g\u00f6rev yapan Allianz Trade ekonomistleri taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan rapora g\u00f6re, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ge\u00e7ici gerilimlere ra\u011fmen yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte k\u00fcresel ekonominin 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yeniden ivme kazanarak y\u00fczde 2,9\u2019a ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Raporda, yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n enerji \u015foku ve ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomi \u00fczerindeki olumsuz etkilerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde telafi etti\u011fi belirtilirken enerji \u015fokunun \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkisinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, t\u00fcketicilerin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcnde ise ancak 2026\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde belirgin bir toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi ifade edildi. \u015eirket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ise risk alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini yapay zek\u00e2 ve enerji ihracat\u0131 destekliyor<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rapora g\u00f6re ABD ekonomisinin 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyen ba\u015fl\u0131ca unsurlar aras\u0131nda enerji ihracat\u0131, 2008\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyedeki tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketimi desteklemesi, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te birini olu\u015fturan yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 7,3 seviyesindeki b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131yla sa\u011flanan mali destek yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 3,4<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Allianz Trade T\u00fcrkiye CEO\u2019su \u00d6mer G\u00fcrcan K\u00f6seo\u011flu<\/strong>, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklendi\u011fini belirterek \u201cBu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, s\u0131k\u0131 finansal ko\u015fullara ve y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen i\u00e7 talebin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Enflasyonun y\u0131l boyunca yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 28-30 band\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyretmesi, daha anlaml\u0131 bir faiz indirimi s\u00fcrecini geciktirebilir. B\u00f6yle d\u00f6nemlerde \u015firketlerin ticari alacak sigortas\u0131yla risklerini g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na almalar\u0131 ve etkili risk y\u00f6netimiyle alacaklar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irerek olas\u0131 iflas ve temerr\u00fct risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Avrupa yava\u015f, \u00c7in dayan\u0131kl\u0131<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rapora g\u00f6re \u0130rlanda hari\u00e7 Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 1,2\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Raporda, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131n\u0131n nedenleri aras\u0131nda enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131, yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n telafi edici etkisinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve Almanya\u2019daki zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c7in ekonomisinin ise ihracat ve y\u00fcksek teknolojili imalat\u0131n deste\u011fiyle y\u00fczde 4,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini koruyaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, zay\u0131f i\u00e7 talep ile ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olu\u015fturmaya devam etti\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flatabilir<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rapora g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel mal ticareti 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda hacim baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek resesyondan ka\u00e7\u0131nacak. Ancak 24 Temmuz\u2019da 122\u2019nci maddenin s\u00fcresinin dolmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD\u2019nin 301\u2019inci madde kapsam\u0131nda ticaret sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatmas\u0131 halinde, ABD\u2019nin efektif g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergisi oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 8\u2019den y\u00fczde 13\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fi, bunun da 2027 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ticaret hacmi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde 2,4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekleniyor<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Raporda, petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n normale d\u00f6nmesi ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin de alt\u0131na gerilemesiyle enerji \u015fokunun k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli kalaca\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirildi. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak genel enflasyon \u00fczerinde ikinci tur etkilerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 ve 2022\u2019dekine benzer g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir enflasyon dalgas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmedi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici dalgalanmalar ya\u015fanabilece\u011fi belirtilirken, petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 2026 sonunda 75 dolar, 2027 sonunda ise 67 dolar seviyesine gerileyece\u011fi tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ABD\u2019de sekt\u00f6r g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc bozuluyor<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rapora g\u00f6re \u015firketler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan finansal ko\u015fullar zorla\u015fmaya devam ediyor. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131 istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korusa da gecikmeli etkilerin ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde daha belirgin hissedilmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ABD\u2019de 16 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn 12\u2019sinde ciro b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi tahminleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilirken en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ila\u00e7 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde 2 puan, kamu hizmetlerinde 1,6 puan ve motorlu ta\u015f\u0131tlarda 1,3 puan olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k elektronik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde 1,7 puan, bilgi ve ileti\u015fim hizmetlerinde 0,7 puan, g\u0131da ve i\u00e7ecek sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ise 0,4 puanl\u0131k yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Raporda ayr\u0131ca y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7luluk ve y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131 nedeniyle otomotiv sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn risk alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilirken k\u00fcresel iflaslar\u0131n 2026 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4 artaca\u011f\u0131, 2027 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise yatay seyredece\u011fi tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Jeopolitik ve iklim riskleri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Raporda, yapay zek\u00e2n\u0131n k\u00fcresel ekonomiye \u00f6nemli destek sa\u011flamakla birlikte bu etkinin belirli sekt\u00f6rlerde yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve beklentilerin kar\u015f\u0131lanamamas\u0131 halinde ticaret, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olu\u015fturabilece\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ekonomistler ayr\u0131ca k\u00fcresel politika belirsizli\u011finin y\u00fcksek seviyesini korudu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekerek, ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, ABD ara se\u00e7imleri, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 mali te\u015fvikleri ve Avrupa\u2019da yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesindeki siyasi kutupla\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca riskler aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Raporda iklim risklerinin de g\u00fcndemde kalmaya devam etti\u011fi ifade edilirken, Avrupa\u2019da son s\u0131cak hava dalgas\u0131n\u0131n sona ermesine ra\u011fmen olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir El Ni\u00f1o d\u00f6neminin yaratabilece\u011fi risklere dikkat \u00e7ekildi. Ayr\u0131ca i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n halen s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011fu ancak orta vadede g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn k\u0131r\u0131lganla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, baz\u0131 Avrupa ekonomilerinde yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karmalar\u0131n verimlilik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\n<div class=\"twitter-share\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsigortamedya.com.tr%2Fkuresel-buyume-2026da-yuzde-25e-gerileyebilir%2F&amp;via=sigortamedya\" class=\"twitter-share-button\">Tweet<\/a><\/div>\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Allianz Trade\u2019in 2026 Yar\u0131 Y\u0131l Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019na g\u00f6re, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ge\u00e7ici gerilimlerin ard\u0131ndan yat\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla k\u00fcresel ekonominin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 2,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. Raporda, yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n enerji \u015foku ve ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n olumsuz etkilerini dengeledi\u011fi belirtilirken T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ise<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-genel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/767","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=767"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/767\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=767"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=767"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sigorta.nesiblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=767"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}